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Nobel laureate economist Eugene F. Fama predicts bitcoin’s collapse, estimating its chances of survival as nearly zero and dismissing it as worthless.
Nobel Economist Says Bitcoin’s Collapse Is Near Certain
Eugene F. Fama, a Nobel Prize-winning economist known for his work on asset pricing and the efficient market hypothesis, believes bitcoin will ultimately become worthless.
Speaking on the Capitalisn’t podcast, Fama was asked about the likelihood of bitcoin collapsing to zero within the next decade. He responded: “I would say it’s close to one. I still believe in monetary theory, though. I may be wrong.” Regarding President Donald Trump’s idea of making bitcoin a strategic reserve—a move some believe could drive BTC’s value higher—Fama issued a warning:
It may have the opposite effect. If the government’s in there, they might send it to zero immediately.
The Nobel laureate expressed strong skepticism about cryptocurrency’s long-term viability, arguing that economic theory suggests it cannot endure. He pointed to bitcoin’s extreme volatility as a fundamental flaw, stating: “All we thought we know about monetary theory says it shouldn’t survive.”
Rejecting comparisons to gold, he stressed: “It’s only digital gold if it has a use. If it doesn’t have a use, it’s just paper. Not paper, it’s air, not even air.”
Fama’s skepticism stems from bitcoin’s reliance on speculation rather than intrinsic value. He noted that with a fixed supply, its price is entirely demand-driven, making it inherently volatile. “People don’t want to do business in something that itself can put them out of business because of the variation in its value,” he said. The economist argued that bitcoin cannot replace traditional currency since financial assets must serve a practical purpose to retain value.
When asked if BTC is a bubble, Fama declined to make a definitive prediction. “I can’t predict when it will bust. I’m hoping it will bust, but I can’t predict it,” he said. The economist warned that if bitcoin continues to hold value, it could challenge fundamental economic theories, concluding:
I’m hoping it will bust because if it doesn’t, we have to start all over with monetary theory.