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Bitcoin Dominance Delays Altcoin Season: What History Tells Us

source-logo  coinedition.com 10 July 2024 14:14, UTC

Crypto analysts are eyeing the possibility of an altcoin season in the coming months, based on historical Bitcoin dominance trends. The leading cryptocurrency’s market share has been steadily climbing, delaying a potential altcoin rally.

Historically, major altcoin rallies have followed significant surges in Bitcoin dominance. In 2016, 243 days after the Bitcoin halving, BTC dominance fell to 63%, sparking a substantial altcoin season. A similar pattern emerged in 2020, with Bitcoin dominance dropping to 47% 245 days post-halving, triggering another altcoin surge.

More than 90 days have passed since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, yet Bitcoin dominance remains high at 53.9%, according to CoinMarketCap data. Crypto enthusiast “CryptoBusy” suggests an altcoin season may not materialize until Q4 2024 or early 2025.

ALTCOIN SEASON TO HAPPEN IN Q4 2024 TO 2025? 🤔#Bitcoin dominance is still rising, and altcoin dominance could dump.

If we follow what happened in the previous price action of BTC.D:

2016: 243 days after the halving, altcoin season happened when #BTC dominance dumped 63%… pic.twitter.com/kYzKXl2TsE

— CryptoBusy (@CryptoBusy) July 9, 2024

The crypto influencer notes that previous cycles indicate a delayed but eventual shift in market dynamics. If Bitcoin dominance follows the same trajectory, a substantial decrease could pave the way for altcoins to soar.

An X user observed that summers tend to be quiet in the crypto space, suggesting a wait-and-see approach until later in the year. They added that “significant developments” are unlikely before Q4.

Benjamin Cowen, CEO of crypto education platform IntoTheCryptoverse, recently highlighted the current undervaluation of the crypto market cap. He suggested a potential surge may occur “sometime late in the halving year or in the first half of the post-halving year.”
CoinMarketCap data shows Bitcoin trading at $59,000, down from recent highs. Selling pressure stems from the German government’s sale of over 12,000 BTC and the distribution of billions in BTC to creditors by the bankrupt crypto platform, Mt. Gox.

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